White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended the week at about $387 per ton, up $1 per ton from a week and a month ago, and down $21 per ton from a year ago.
In its April 2016 Grain Market Report (GMR), the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts 2016-17 global rice production at around 485 million tons, up about 2.5% from an estimated 473 million tons in 2015-16 on improved Asian production. However, the IGC kept its forecasts for 2015-16 rice production unchanged from its previous forecasts.
Six of the eight international climate models are predicting that the tropical Pacific Ocean will return to neutral levels, which suggests the end of the El Nino weather phenomenon by May this year. Seven of them are also predicting that La Nina may emerge by September.
Crude oil prices declined on concerns the global supply glut won’t contract as fast as expected. U.S. stocks extended their losses amid a slump in the technology sector. European economic growth for the first three months of 2016 came in better than expected, lifting sentiment. The U.S. dollar slumped to an 11-month low after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday maintained its cautious outlook on the economy and it’s schedule to raise interest rates.
Thailand 5% broken rice is today quoted at about $385 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about $15 per ton from a month ago and unchanged from a year ago.
Thailand exported around 2.85 million tons of rice in the first quarter of 2016, up about 34% from around 2.13 million tons exported during the same period of last year. The TREA noted that Thailand remained the top rice exporter the first three months of 2016, while India stood second with 2.3 million tons Vietnam stood third with 1.55 million tons.
Thailand’s National Rice Policy Committee has approved the government’s decision to sell 11.4 million tons of stockpiled rice through a series of auctions starting next week. The government hopes to generate income of at least 100 billion baht (about $2.86 billion) from the sales.
The Thai Department of Royal Irrigation has advised farmers to delay planting for the 2016 main rice crop until July as the water in the Chao Phraya River basin is insufficient to feed the rice farms in the early rainy season next month.
The government of Thailand is targeting 2016-17 main rice crop acreage at 57.41 million rai (around 9.2 million hectares) with a targeted output of 24 million tons and a total targeted output of 27.17 million tons (including the second crop).
Vietnam 5% broken rice is today quoted at about $370 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week ago, down about $15 per ton from a month ago and up about $10 per ton from a year ago.
During the period January 1 – April 21, Vietnam exported about 1.571 million tons of rice, an increase of about 1.23% from in the first four months of last year. The average rice export price so far this year stands at around $410 per ton (FOB), down about 4% from the same time last year.
Drought and salinity have damaged about 240,215 hectares of rice fields in Vietnam’s central southern provinces.
The USDA Post forecasts Vietnam’s MY 2015-16 (January-December) rice exports at 7 million tons, up from last year’s 6.615 million tons and unchanged from USDA’s official estimates.
Cambodia 5% broken rice is today quoted at about $455 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week ago, up about $30 per ton from a month ago and up about $20 per ton from a year ago.
Myanmar 5% broken rice is today quoted at about $425 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week ago, unchanged from a month ago, and up about $10 per ton from a year ago.
Myanmar rice farmers are urging the Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank (MADB) to provide larger, long-term loans with no limitation on acreage to help them boost their production as well as improve their living standards.
India 5% broken rice is today quoted at about $370 per ton, unchanged from a week, a month ago and a year ago.
India average wholesale rice prices have declined in April 2016 after increasing for five consecutive months. Average monthly wholesale rice prices in India stood at around Rs.2,774,60 per quintal in April 2016, down about 2% from around Rs.2,833.79 per quintal in March 2016, and down about 3% from their year-ago levels of around Rs.2,849.81 per quintal.
Rice output in India’s southern state Telangana is expected to decline about 35% y/y to around 2.93 million tons in 2015-16 from around 4.54 million tons in 2014-15 due to drought.
Wholesale basmati rice prices in the national capital declined Thursday due to low demand from retailers against adequate supplies from producing regions.
The government of Bangladesh has decided to procure around 1.3 million tons of paddy and rice during the 2016 Boro (January-May) harvest season between May 5 and August 31. Rice farmers in most parts of the country have started harvesting Boro (January-May) paddy and anticipate better prices this year.
Nepal’s rice imports from India increased about 36% y/y to around Rs.31.43 billion (around $128 million) in the first eight months of FY 2015-16 (August-March).
Pakistan 5% broken rice is today quoted at about $370 per ton, up about $15 per ton from a week ago, up about $30 per ton from a month ago and down about $10 per ton from a year ago.
The Chairman of the Trade Corporation of Pakistan has called for increased interaction between the TCP and the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan in order to boost Pakistan’s rice exports.
Central & South America
Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today quoted at about $425 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $5 per ton from a month ago and down about $140 per ton from a year ago.
The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA) reached around 39.94 real per 50 kilograms as of April 22, 2016, up about 0.30% from around 39.82 real per 50 kilograms, recorded a week ago. In terms of USD, the index reached around $225 per ton on April 22, 2016, up about 0.11% from around $224.8 per ton recorded a week ago. Month-on-month, the index has increased about 0.86% from around 39.6 real per 50 kilograms recorded month ago. In terms of USD, the index increased about 4.38% during the month.
U.S. 4% broken rice is today quoted at about $440 per ton, up about $10 per ton from a week ago, down about $5 per ton from a month ago and down about $45 per ton from a year ago.
Chicago rough rice futures for July delivery rallied early in the week, reaching the weekly high of $11.390 per cwt (about $251 per ton) on Tuesday but then slipped back down slightly as traders looked to increased global production. Futures closed the week at $11.080 per cwt (about $244 per ton).
The U.S. cash market fell later in the week in conjunction with the futures market as export sales numbers proved to be anemic for long-grain rice.
The USDA Post forecasts Russia’s MY 2015-16 (January-December) rice exports to increase 17% y/y to 190,000 tons, up about 17% from last year and unchanged from USDA’s official estimates.
The Central Bank of Nigeria has provided a loan of about 4.9 billion (around $25 million) to rice farmers under its anchor borrower program, which is aimed at increasing agricultural output of rice and wheat and reducing the gap between production and consumption. The USDA Post forecasts Nigeria’s MY 2015-16 (October-September) rice imports to be around 2.5 million tons, down from last year’s 3 million tons and down from the USDA’s official estimates due to constraints on foreign exchange, the current ban on land imports, and high prices. It forecasts rice imports to further decline to 2.1 million tons in MY 2016-17. The FAO estimates Nigeria’s 2015 paddy rice production at around 4.75 million tons, about 3% less than in 2014. The National Agricultural Seed Council (NASC) of Nigeria has launched a $800,000 rice seed up-scaling project in collaboration with the Seed Entrepreneurs Association of Nigeria (SEEDAN) to boost local rice production in the country
The USDA Post forecasts Indonesia’s MY 2015-16 (January-December) rice imports to reach about 2 million tons, up about 48% from last year due to anticipated lower rice production and carryover imports from last year, in addition to increased demand for specialty rice.
Scientists in Tanzania have developed three salt-resistant and high-yielding rice varieties under the AGRA-PASS breeding program to help boost rice production in the country.
The Australian food processing and exporting company SunRice has fixed the 2017 rice forward price at $400 per ton for medium grain Reiziq rice crop and at $380 per ton for Sherpa rice variety.
The UN’s FAO estimates North Korea’s 2015-16 (November-October) paddy rice production will decline about 26% y/y to around 1.95 million tons due to lingering precipitation deficits and low water availabilities for irrigation.
Paddy rice prices in Italy remained unchanged this week after a long period of slowing down.
South Korea’s state-run Agro Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation is looking to buy about 58,111 tons of non-glutinous brown rice in tenders for delivery between September 30 and November 30. South Korea’s major trading partners – Australia, Vietnam, China, Thailand, and the U.S. – continue to oppose the country’s 513% tariff on rice imports above the WTO TRQ of 409,000 tons, with negotiations between South Korea and the other countries ongoing.
The Philippines National Food Authority Administrator, who will resign April 30 due to health concerns, says the new Chief will decide on volume and timing of rice imports. The Philippine Statistics Authority estimates the Philippines paddy rice output in the first quarter of 2016 to be around 4.01 million tons, down about 8.1% from the same period last year and about 1.5% from its previous estimate.
The Rice Value Chain Advisor at Green Innovation Center (GIC) advised Ghana farmers use “bubble dryer” to improve the quality of local rice production. He stated that the technology uses solar radiation to power a system to blow hot air to dry cereals, including rice and corn. He note that it is capable of reducing the moisture levels in cereals from 22% to between 12% and 13% within a day.
Australian scientists are working towards developing a new rice variety that has health benefits of brown and colored rice varieties but with the texture of white rice.